Bayesian Inference for Generalized Linear Models for Spiking Neurons

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) are commonly used statistical methods for modelling the relationship between neural population activity and presented stimuli. When the dimension of the parameter space is large, strong regularization has to be used in order to fit GLMs to datasets of realistic size without overfitting. By imposing properly chosen priors over parameters, Bayesian inference provides an effective and principled approach for achieving regularization. Here we show how the posterior distribution over model parameters of GLMs can be approximated by a Gaussian using the Expectation Propagation algorithm. In this way, we obtain an estimate of the posterior mean and posterior covariance, allowing us to calculate Bayesian confidence intervals that characterize the uncertainty about the optimal solution. From the posterior we also obtain a different point estimate, namely the posterior mean as opposed to the commonly used maximum a posteriori estimate. We systematically compare the different inference techniques on simulated as well as on multi-electrode recordings of retinal ganglion cells, and explore the effects of the chosen prior and the performance measure used. We find that good performance can be achieved by choosing an Laplace prior together with the posterior mean estimate

How biased are maximum entropy models?

Maximum entropy models have become popular statistical models in neuroscience and other areas in biology, and can be useful tools for obtaining estimates of mutual information in biological systems. However, maximum entropy models fit to small data sets can be subject to sampling bias; i.e. the true entropy of the data can be severely underestimated. Here we study the sampling properties of estimates of the entropy obtained from maximum entropy models. We show that if the data is generated by a distribution that lies in the model class, the bias is equal to the number of parameters divided by twice the number of observations. However, in practice, the true distribution is usually outside the model class, and we show here that this misspecification can lead to much larger bias. We provide a perturbative approximation of the maximally expected bias when the true model is out of model class, and we illustrate our results using numerical simulations of an Ising model; i.e. the second-order maximum entropy distribution on binary data.

Neural population coding: combining insights from microscopic and mass signals

Behavior relies on the distributed and coordinated activity of neural populations. Population activity can be measured using multi-neuron recordings and neuroimaging. Neural recordings reveal how the heterogeneity, sparseness, timing, and correlation of population activity shape information processing in local networks, whereas neuroimaging shows how long-range coupling and brain states impact on local activity and perception. To obtain an integrated perspective on neural information processing we need to combine knowledge from both levels of investigation. We review recent progress of how neural recordings, neuroimaging, and computational approaches begin to elucidate how interactions between local neural population activity and large-scale dynamics shape the structure and coding capacity of local information representations, make them state-dependent, and control distributed populations that collectively shape behavior

Simultaneous identification of models and parameters of scientific simulators

Many scientific models are composed of multiple discrete components, and scien tists often make heuristic decisions about which components to include. Bayesian inference provides a mathematical framework for systematically selecting model components, but defining prior distributions over model components and developing associated inference schemes has been challenging. We approach this problem in an amortized simulation-based inference framework: We define implicit model priors over a fixed set of candidate components and train neural networks to infer joint probability distributions over both, model components and associated parameters from simulations. To represent distributions over model components, we introduce a conditional mixture of multivariate binary distributions in the Grassmann formalism. Our approach can be applied to any compositional stochastic simulator without requiring access to likelihood evaluations. We first illustrate our method on a simple time series model with redundant components and show that it can retrieve joint posterior distribution over a set of symbolic expressions and their parameters while accurately capturing redundancy with strongly correlated posteriors. We then apply our approach to drift-diffusion models, a commonly used model class in cognitive neuroscience. After validating the method on synthetic data, we show that our approach explains experimental data as well as previous methods, but that our fully probabilistic approach can help to discover multiple data-consistent model configurations, as well as reveal non-identifiable model components and parameters. Our method provides a powerful tool for data-driven scientific inquiry which will allow scientists to systematically identify essential model components and make uncertainty-informed modelling decisions

Inferring decoding strategy from choice probabilities in the presence of noise correlations

The activity of cortical neurons in sensory areas covaries with perceptual decisions, a relationship often quantified by choice probabilities. While choice probabilities have been measured extensively, their interpretation has remained fraught with difficulty. Here, we derive the mathematical relationship between choice probabilities, read-out weights and noise correlations within the standard neural decision making model. Our solution allows us to prove and generalize earlier observations based on numerical simulations, and to derive novel predictions. Importantly, we show how the read-out weight profile, or decoding strategy, can be inferred from experimentally measurable quantities. Furthermore, we present a test to decide whether the decoding weights of individual neurons are optimal, even without knowing the underlying noise correlations. We confirm the practical feasibility of our approach using simulated data from a realistic population model. Our work thus provides the theoretical foundation for a growing body of experimental results on choice probabilities and correlations

Signatures of criticality arise in simple neural population models with correlations

Large-scale recordings of neuronal activity make it possible to gain insights into the collective activity of neural ensembles. It has been hypothesized that neural populations might be optimized to operate at a 'thermodynamic critical point', and that this property has implications for information processing. Support for this notion has come from a series of studies which identified statistical signatures of criticality in the ensemble activity of retinal ganglion cells. What are the underlying mechanisms that give rise to these observations? Here we show that signatures of criticality arise even in simple feed-forward models of retinal population activity. In particular, they occur whenever neural population data exhibits correlations, and is randomly sub-sampled during data analysis. These results show that signatures of criticality are not necessarily indicative of an optimized coding strategy, and challenge the utility of analysis approaches based on equilibrium thermodynamics for understanding partially observed biological systems.Comment: 36 pages, LaTeX; added journal reference on page 1, added link to code repositor

Adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an inference network on simulated data, which can subsequently be used to rapidly perform inference (i.e., to return estimates of posterior distributions) for new observations. This approach has been applied to many real-world models in the sciences and engineering, but it is unclear how robust the approach is to adversarial perturbations in the observed data. Here, we study the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference, focusing on simulation-based estimation of multi-dimensional posterior distributions. We show that almost unrecognizable, targeted perturbations of the observations can lead to drastic changes in the predicted posterior and highly unrealistic posterior predictive samples, across several benchmark tasks and a real-world example from neuroscience. We propose a computationally efficient regularization scheme based on penalizing the Fisher information of the conditional density estimator, and show how it improves the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference